One Fine Day—Olympic Skiathlon, 2026

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Everybody will be fresh on Day 1 of the Olympic Cross Country schedule; the racing is likely to be fast and furious. The 16-day Olympic schedule is more spread out than last season’s 10-day World Championship schedule. Athletes will have the benefit of more rest and recovery between events, meaning even more athletes will compete in each event. It also means that those contenders likely to be competing in every event (like Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo and Jessie Diggins) will be just a bit fresher on race day. If anything, the broader schedule levels the playing field a bit, but there will still be some picking and choosing among events entered by certain specialists and opportunists. Those strategies and decisions begin on Day 1 with the Olympic Skiathlon.

The 2 x 10 k Skiathlon is a new Olympic distance (formerly 2 x 15 k for men, 2 x 7.5 k for women), but one to which competitors should be accustomed by now. They’ve raced it at recent World Championships, and the 10 k distance is one which both women and men have raced many times in World Cup events. It’s a set of familiar distances and strategies, but the men’s and women’s races are likely to be decidedly different. The 2 x 10 k Skiathlon is a mass start event, one that’s likely to see Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo (NOR) sitting in and sprinting at the finish line; in the women’s race, Therese Johaug (NOR) is certain to go from the gun. Two races on the same day, and they’re likely to resemble each other not at all. Unless the Russians show up . . .

Men’s Skiathlon

In 2022 in Beijing’s Skiathlon, gold medalist, Alexander Bolshunov, and his Russian teammates pushed the pace to the degree that Norwegian stars couldn’t control the race . . . and Klaebo simply got dropped. If anyone wants to beat Klaebo, that’s the strategy that must be employed. If the Russians are lined up at the Skiathlon starting line, that’s certainly the strategy they’ll employ again. After the 2025 World Championships in Trondheim, outspoken Norwegian ski-commentator, Petter Northug, loudly criticized his countrymen for failing to drive the pace during mass start races, blaming Norwegian contenders for effectively allowing Klaebo to sit in and sprint to gold. At the Olympics in Cortina, one year after Northug’s public admonishment, those same Norwegian contenders may try a go-for-broke strategy. If the Russians arrive at the Olympic Games in racing form, there will be plenty of skiers willing to risk it all. But Klaebo looked pretty darn fit last season—like the field would not have been able to drop him no matter how hard they tried. In Cortina, if they fail to drop Klaebo, then he wins. Simple as that . . .

Iivo Niskanen (FIN) earned a bronze medal in the Olympic Skiathlon four years ago in Beijing, but his best chance for a medal in Cortina lies in the 50 k Classic. It’s possible that Niskanen may sit out the Skiathlon so that he’ll remain fresh while the Norwegians and Russians wear themselves out attacking Klaebo. Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) will definitely be entered in the Skiathlon: he can win from the front or in a sprint. Erik Valnes (NOR) is probably out: Norway will be saving him for Sprint and Team Sprint events. Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) and Simen Hegstad Krueger (NOR) are likely to contend, but neither of them has a chance unless they get rid of Klaebo. Klaebo will race everything, and Bolshunov will go wherever Klaebo goes.

Women’s Skiathlon

Four years ago, Johaug dominated the women’s Olympic Skiathlon, simply skiing away to the win ahead of Finland’s Kerttu Niskanen (silver) and Krista Parmakoski (bronze). Much has changed since then, including Johaug’s two year retirement during which she gave birth to her daughter and launched a fashion empire. One thing remains the same, though: Johaug is still the one with the obvious race strategy, and going from the gun is certainly the only way she can win (in a sprint finish, Johaug beats nobody). While 2022 was a race against Finland’s best, 2026 will be a year when Johaug’s main rivals are likely to wear Swedish colors. Ebba Andersson (SWE) and Frida Karlsson (SWE) appear capable of matching Johaug’s pace. And if the field manages to rein in Johaug—approaching the finish line with a group of contenders still intact—then Sweden is likely to take that victory on the wings of World and Olympic Sprint Champion, Jonna Sundling. If it comes down to a sprint, nobody beats Sundling. On the other hand, Sweden might save Sundling for other races rather than risking exhausting her on the very first day of Olympic competition.

Jessie Diggins (USA) has a fighting chance in any mass start event (in 2022, she won silver in 30 k Mass Start Freestyle, and bronze in Freestyle Sprint). But if Diggins shows up flat, if her skis are slow, or if someone else (Johaug, Karlsson, Sundling, Andersson) shows up hot, then Diggins will have a tough time making her way onto the Skiathlon podium.

Beijing 2022 Cross Country Skiing RESULTS