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With only three weekends of racing and five races left, the 2024 World Cup Season is entering its home-stretch run, and fans of team USA are hoping that Jessie Diggins can hang on to her lead in the race for the Overall standings and capture the Crystal Globe award. Diggins has had a commanding lead since the Tour de Ski ended and has successfully protected that lead by consistently having top finishes and claiming bonus points in Mass Start races.
Also of season long interest has been Rosie Brennan’s efforts to try and reach the podium in the Distance competition.
What Does Diggins Need To Do?
After last weekend, Diggins’ lead in the Overall competition shrank substantially when she failed to qualify for the Sprint finals, and Linn Svahn (NOR)— who is currently sitting behind her in second place— finished fourth, and was second in the qualifying rounds. Svahn earned an additional 12 points for the Sprint qualification, while Diggins earned none. Svahn also gained 63 points on Diggins for her fourth place finish. So, in one quick morning of racing, the Swede cut into Diggins’ lead by 75 points. It goes to show how quickly points can evaporate in the World Cup. Diggins now leads in the Overall standings by 162 points. Remember that number. For those pundits who have been saying for weeks that the race for the Crystal Globe was over, they need to do some math.
In an interesting asterisk, Diggins was helped in the points race when Frida Karlsson (SWE) was disqualified Sunday for interference. After the disqualification, Karlsson was removed from the finishing list, which moved Diggins up one spot, and earned her an additional two points. In a format in which only the top 30 qualifiers move on to the heats, Diggins was put into the statistically anomalous situation of finishing 30th and not making the quarterfinals.
As a result of the weekend’s points shuffle, Diggins’ once comfortably padded lead while still significant, now looks vulnerable.
Here’s why there’s some reason for anxiety in the American fan base. With five races remaining in the season there are 500 points up for grabs just based on who finishes first in a race. Two of the remaining races are Sprints. First place in a Sprint qualification earns an additional 15 points, which adds 30 more points into the mix.
Then there’s the 500 pound gorilla in the room; the Holmenkollen Classic. This is where things get tricky. To begin with, the motivation to win Holmenkollen is immense, so every skier will be giving it their all. The competition just to get into the top ten will be intense. Then there are the bonus points. Since Holmenkollen is 50-kilometers, that means that there will be six bonus sections up for grabs. That adds up to an additional 90 points being available in bonus points just in that race. So Holmenkollen alone offers potentially 190 points to a skier who can win the race and take all the bonus points.
Throw in the bonus points for the 20-kilometer Mass Start on the last day of racing for the season in Falun, and that adds in another 30 points into the equation.
Add everything up, and there are still 650 points to be fought over. That’s a lot. But figuring out whether Diggins’ lead is safe takes more than simply seeing how many points are left. Barring some catastrophe, Diggins will receive some points in every race. But it doesn’t take too many wild out of the box scenarios to see her lead disappear.
Here’s an example. If Svahn finishes fourth in Holmenkollen and takes every bonus section, she would receive 175 points. Assume Diggins stumbles and finishes 21st—like last week’s Individual Start Classic race in Lahti—and doesn’t get any bonus points; she would get 40 points total. That’s a 135 point swing. Now remember that 162 points lead that Diggins was starting with; that would vanish into a scant 27 point lead going into the remaining two weekends of racing, where there will still be 460 points available. To state the obvious, doing well in Holmenkollen is key to winning the Crystal Globe.
Is such an outcome probable, or even possible? Well, Svahn finished fourth in the 30-kilometer Classic Mass Start in the 2023 World Cup, and as mentioned, Diggins finished 21st in last week’s 20-kilometer Individual Start Classic race. So, both racers have had the exact same outcomes as what was just described.
A 50-kilometer Classic race is a long way and almost anything can happen. The math reveals that Diggins, and her fans, can’t afford to take anything for granted. The odds are still in her favor and she has already shown herself to be a shrewd tactician at picking up bonus points in Distance races while not necessarily using energy to contest the podium. She might employ a similar strategy at Holmenkollen.
But Svahn is skiing very well right now and could try and use a similar strategy. All Svahn needs to do is take a big bite out of Diggins’ lead and then let things play out in the last two weekends of racing. With 460 available points over the last two weekends—and two of the races are Sprints, Svahn is the current Sprint leader— if Svahn can reduce Diggins’ lead to the neighborhood of 50 points after Holmenkollen, she would have a legitimate shot at the Championship. And there’s an old saying that, “it is better to be the hunter than the hunted.” Diggins is definitely the hunted.
After the U.S team’s rough outing last weekend with less than optimal skis, the tension will be extra high to make sure that performances on both ends of the equation—ski preparation, and athlete performance—are at their very best.
What Does Brennan Need to Do?
Rosie Brennan’s situation is very different, and even more tenuous. After last weekend, she was in fourth, only 46 points behind Ebba Andersson (SWE) for third place in the Distance standings, and 68 points behind Victoria Carl (GER) for second. She is 284 behind Diggins who also holds the lead in the Distance Cup chase. But Brennan is in the unenviable position of being chased by Karlsson, Heidi Weng (NOR), and Kerttu Niskanen (FIN), all of whom are within 14 points of her, and all of whom can “bring it” at any time in a Distance race.
For Brennan, finishing in the top three in the Distance Competition would be hugely satisfying in a season which saw her competing early on for the Overall Competition, but now has her in fifth place, over 200 points out of third, in the Overall standings. Unlike Diggins, Brennan won’t have to engage in any complex mathematical variables. Her mission is simple; she needs to stay ahead of all of the women who are behind her and beat out Andersson by enough in the three remaining Distance races to grab the 46 points she needs. If she can do that, she’ll end the season on a high note, and come away with a Distance top three. It will go a long way to lessen the disappointment of what has been an admittedly frustrating second half of her season.
The math for the next couple of weeks might be a little confusing, but it’s an equation for racing which promises to be intense, strategic, and compelling down to the final minute.
