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It’s always exciting when the season of any professional sport comes down to the last weekend of competition. But for U.S. cross-country fans, and fans of Jessie Diggins, it’s definitely excitement they could do without. It seems like a lifetime ago, but back in early February Diggins’ lead in the Overall Crystal Globe competition was 340 points. However, her once healthy lead in the Overall competition has been whittled down by Linn Svahn (SWE) to 102 points. Perhaps it’s because there has been such a precipitous decline in the lead that there is now anxiety amongst her fans. Going into the final weekend of racing, Diggins’ lead is still substantial, but it’s also within Svahn’s striking distance.
Here’s how it all breaks down for the final weekend of racing in Falun and how a couple of scenarios could play out. Also, here’s a disclaimer, this is not in any way an attempt to predict what will happen, it’s simply an illustration of how Diggins’ lead is far from safe, and to show that there will be precious little margin of error in the weekend to come.
Friday—Classic Sprint
There will be a total of 115 points available Friday. The Sprint winner will receive 100 points. Additionally, the racer who finishes first in qualifying will receive an additional 15 points. Going into Friday, Svahn will be the Sprint leader and has been sprinting well. It’s very possible that she could win the Sprint and take the 15 qualifying bonus points.
If Diggins finishes out of the finals and ends up, say 10th, she would receive 63 points. Assuming she didn’t receive any qualifying points, Svahn would gain 52 points on Diggins and her Overall lead would be reduced to 50 points.
So, Diggins’ mission on Friday will be to make the finals and thereby finish no worse than sixth which would earn a minimum of 75 points. Should that happen—and Diggins doesn’t take any qualifying points—Svahn would then be 62 points behind Diggins after Friday’s race.
Saturday—10 k Classic Individual Start
Saturday’s race is an individual start, and therefore doesn’t offer any bonus points. So, the most points anyone can earn for the day is 100. Svahn finished 11th and 12th in her last two Classic distance races. Let’s say she finishes 11th Saturday and earns 60 points.
Diggins finished 11th and 21st in her last two Classic races. Let’s say she finishes 15th Saturday. She would earn 52 points; eight less than Svahn. If that happens then in the two scenarios from Friday, Diggins’ lead would be reduced to 42 or 54 points going into the final race Sunday.
Sunday—20 k Freestyle Mass Start
Sunday’s race offers a total of 130 points; 100 points to the winner, and two bonus sections worth 15 points each. It is a format in which Diggins excels. Diggins has already proven extremely proficient in grabbing bonus points in longer races. Assume she wins both bonus sections and takes all 30 bonus points. But assume grabbing all of the bonus points takes something out of her and she ends up finishing sixth. She would receive 75 points for the sixth place finish, for a total of 105 for the day.
If Svahn finishes third and is second at all of the bonus sections, she would receive 114 points (90 for the first place finish, and 24 for the two second place bonus sprints). This would chip into Diggins’ lead by nine points, and Diggins wins the championship by 33 to 45 points if you stick with the two earlier scenarios.
But the outcome would be different if things go slightly off course for Diggins. If Svahn finishes third and wins all of the bonus points, then she would receive 120 points. If Diggins has a bad day and finishes 10th, and fourth in both bonus sections, then she would get 79 points. Svahn gains 41 points on the day. Depending on which scenarios above play out, Diggins might win by one point!
That’s just how tight things could get over the weekend. Not to raise the anxiety level of Team USA supporters, but it could be one of the most exciting weekends of racing in recent memory. Or, Diggins could just go out and crush it and make things academic by Saturday afternoon. Either way, the World Cup events this weekend will be racing worth following.
