Additional Quota Analysis – US and Canada to Gain Spots

Now that FIS has announced the quotas for the 2010 Olympics, focus has shifted to the potential for additional spots due to reallocation.

The US currently has 8 spots and Canada 11.  The maximum that any country can have is 20 – currently Russia, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Italy are at the maximum.  Germany is not far behind with 18.  But if these countries (or any other for that matter) choose not to take their full quota, those spots are reallocated to other nations.  There is a reallocation “waiting list” based on the same criteria as the original quota numbers

The US is currently second on that list and is virtually guaranteed an additional spot.

What happens from there is less clear.  The US also is 27th, 38th and 45th on the list.  Canada is 12th, 15th, 18th, 26th, 30th, 32nd, 36th, and 46th.  The list goes 50 deep.

So the big question is how many spots will go unused and reenter the pool for reallocation.

Based on information released by National Federations, team size in 2006, FIS points, and substantial guesswork, I have projected team sizes and thus the number of spots that will be reallocated.

But before I get into my analysis and conclusions, I want to be clear – I have no inside information.  I have made a  huge number of assumptions as to what other countries will do when picking teams.  It is possible that I am way off.  While predicting teams and quotas can be fun for those of us watching from the sidelines, this is an extremely stressful time for the athletes waiting to hear if they will go to the Olympics.  The danger of this article is that it could falsely raise hopes of athletes, families, friends, and supporters.  I caution that everyone take this piece with more than a grain of salt.

Good News for US and Canada

I will provide details of my analysis below, but my conclusions are favorable.  I predict that the US will definitely end up with 2 additional spots.  A third is within reach, and if all my assumptions are correct, a 4th spot would likely be added.

Canada has a good chance of hitting the Cross-Country Canada mandated team size of 16 athletes, and could have extra quota to spare – which would return to the pool.

The Setup

FIS has published the quotas and reallocation list.  I created a list of the 30 countries with at least 3 spots.  FIS allows any country to start one male and one female in specific races even if those athletes do not meet the minimum requirements of 100 distance points or 120 sprint points.

I made the assumption that any country with two or less spots would make use of them.  Some countries only have one spot because they have only one FIS registered athlete.  Countries with at least three spots would be in position to return one to the pool.

I then looked up the number of race starts that each country had in the 2006 Olympics.  I was unable to find actual rosters.  The US, for example, brought 17 to Torino, but only 16 raced.  Thus number would still provide some guidance.

Next I looked at the reallocation list and added a column on my spreadsheet for number of spots in the top-38.  Why 38?  It is very unlikely that we would see 50 spots returned, and Canada has number 38.

The 3’s

The first thing I did was look at countries that had a quota number of 3 – including Greece, Great Britain, Bulgaria, to name just a few.  I then checked to see if they had more than two athletes who met the minimum standards mentioned above. A number did not.

This immediately resulted in 5 returned spots.  Because of the rule allowing at least one of each gender to participate, I again assumed that each of these nations would take two people.

Only two of the nine nations with 3 quota spots are on the reallocation list – China and Spain.  Given China had 16 skiers race in 2006 and Spain 5, I made the call that both countries would gladly use the extra quota.

Mid Range

I then moved on to the mid range countries – those with 4 to 10 spots.  This included a whole range – from Lithuania to the Czech Republic.

These countries are generally have stronger ski programs.  9 of the 11 in this range raced more skiers in 2006 than their current quota.  I therefore allocated full quotas for each.  The two exceptions were Lithuania and Poland.

Lithuania has a quota of four and race two in 2006.  There are enough athletes to meet the minimum points criteria, so I went with the full four.

Poland on the other hand, has 7 spots available, and raced 3 in 2006.  A lot can change in 4 years, but Poland still has only nine athletes that meet the points criteria.    So far the Polish Ski Federation has named three skiers to the team.  I made the guess they would name only one more.

So in the mid range I have only Poland returning spots from the original quota.

As with the 3’s I then moved to the reallocation list.  The mid range countries appear on the list 15 times in the top-38 (this includes the US) and I predicted that all of these 15 would be claimed with two exceptions.  Obviously if Poland doesn’t even take their full original quota, they would automatically pass on the reallocation spot they are in line for.

The other exception was Slovenia.  I find it unlikely, based on World Cup and FIS results, as well as the fact they only started five in Torino, that Slovenia will bring more than 7.  Another factor is that the team has one medal hopeful in Petra Majdic and several contenders in Vesna Fabjan and Katja Visnar.  With a traditionally small support staff, it is easy to imagine keeping the team small so service personnel can focus on these top athletes.

Slovenia has 3 spots on the reallocation list.  I originally had them taking two of those for a team size of 7, but after some additional research believe that Slovenia will only bring 5.  This means 3 spots return to the reallocation pool.

So 3 quota spots go back in the pool, and two reallocation slots are passed on.

Wanting More

The next group is small – made up of just three countries – Canada, Estonia and Switzerland.  These countries have 11 or 12 spots but would likely take more.

Estonia is on the reallocation list 4 times in the top 38.  Again, being conservative, I predict that Estonia will use 3 of those slots if they come up.

Canada has an impressive 8 reallocation slots, but has a maximum team size of 16 – therefore they cannot make use of more than 5.

Switzerland is a tough one.  A strong team, they brought only 12 to Torino.  This year they have an initial quota of 12 and another 4 slots on the reallocation list.  I’m going with a total team of 14 athletes.

The Big Guns

The last group consists of countries with high quotas likely to return spots to the pool.  Ultimately they hold the fate of US and Canadian bubble athletes in their hands.

France has a quota of 16 and the first spot on the reallocation list.  11 French skiers raced in ’06.  The French team is very strong right now – especially the men.  I could not find any information on the current composition of the team, but 11 spots have already been assigned.  I find it unlikely that France will take more than 14.  THis means 2 quota spots back into the pot, and 2 reallocation slots passed on.

Next is Germany with a quota of 18.  Obviously very strong with numerous medal hopefuls, Germany will bring a large team.  They brought 13 to Torino, and I’m guessing 15 this year.  In addition to the 3 quota spots returned, Germany also has two spots on the reallocation list.

The last five countries all have the max quota of 20.  Italy and Russia had the biggest teams in ’06 with 17 and 18 respectively.  But it was a home Olympics for Italy. I predicted 17 for them, and it could be less.

Russia has already named 16 to the squad, and Federation officials have said they do not feel obligated to fill the quota.  I’m going with 18 for the Russians.

Finally we have Finland, Sweden and Norway.  Langd.se reportst that Sweden will bring 15-16 athletes.  I went with 16.

Finland and Norway are still both in the qualification process.  Finland brought 13 to Torino, and will be focusing on their medal hopefuls.  I say 15 here.

Norway is tough.  A commenter on this site claims that Norway will bring a full 20.  I find that unlikely given the number of race starts available.  The Norwegians have named 11 and will pick the rest following this week’s Norwegian National Championships.

When you factor in that Petter Northug could race all events, and Marit Bjorgen may be close behind, that eliminates potential start spots.  The men’s sprint team is full, or close depending on Northug.

I say 17, but this is one place where I could be off on the low side.

How it Plays Out

I predict 30 quota spots will be returned to the pool.  An additional 12 reallocation slots will be skipped.  I crossed out the skipped reallocation slots on the list.  This moves the 38th spot up to 25th.  If my assumptions are correct, this means 3 more Olympic spots for the US and the full team of 16 for Canada.

In an absolutely worst case scenario, where all teams took their maximum, the US would still gain one more spot, but Canada would not.  But this scenario is highly unlikely.

Certain:
US +1

Very Likely:
US +1
CAN +2

Likely:
US + 1
CAN +3

Still Looks Good:
US +2
CAN +5 (hits maximum CCC team size)

Not far Behind:
US +3

Longshot:
US +4

Conclusion

Ultimately, we won’t know until the 28th when spots are reallocated.  The above exercise includes significant guesswork and many assumptions.  I could be wrong in any number of areas.  But hopefully I am correct and both Canada and the US will end up with multiple additional spots.

Data

	2010 Quota	2010 Assigned	06 Olympic Starters	Est. 2010 Total	Est. Reallocation	Reallocation slots in top-38	Est. Spots Used	Est. Spots Passed	Est. Total Team
AUS	3	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	3
NZE	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	2
GBR	3	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	2
GRE	3	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	2
ROU	3	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	3
BUL	3	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	2
SPA	3	0	5	3	0	1	1	0	4
CHN	3	0	16	3	0	1	1	0	4
TUR	3	0	3	2	1	0	0	0	2
LTU	4	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	4
UKR	4	0	12	4	0	4	4	0	8
AUT	5	2	5	5	0	0	0	0	5
SVK	5	1	6	5	0	0	0	0	5
SLO	5	1	5	5	0	3	0	3	5
BLR	6	3	7	6	0	0	0	0	6
POL	7	3	3	4	3	1	0	1	4
JPN	8	5	10	8	0	0	0	0	8
USA	8	4	16	8	0	3	3	0	11
CZE	9	5	11	9	0	2	2	0	11
KAZ	10	7	16	10	0	1	1	0	11
EST	11	8	12	11	0	4	3	1	14
CAN	11	6	12	11	0	8	5	3	16
SUI	12	7	9	12	0	4	2	2	14
FRA	16	11	11	14	2	2	0	2	14
GER	18	12	13	15	3	2	0	2	15
ITA	20	13	17	17	3	0	0	0	17
NOR	20	13	15	17	3	0	0	0	17
RUS	20	13	18	18	2	0	0	0	18
SWE	20	13	14	16	4	0	0	0	16
FIN	20	14	13	15	5	0	0	0	15
TOTAL					30			14

Reallocation List

Rank	Nation	New Rank
1	FRA
2	USA	1
3	FRA
4	UKR	2
5	UKR	3
6	EST	4
7	UKR	5
8	CZE	6
9	SPA	7
10	SUI	8
11	FRA
12	CAN	9
13	CZE	10
14	SLO
15	CAN	11
16	EST	12
17	SUI	13
18	CAN	14
19	SUI
20	UKR	15
21	EST	16
22	FRA	17
23	KAZ	18
24	SLO
25	CHN	19
26	CAN	20
27	USA	21
28	GER
29	SLO
30	CAN	22
31	SUI
32	CAN
33	GER
34	POL
35	CAN
36	CAN
37	EST
38	USA	23
39	EST
40	CHN	24
41	BLR	25
42	BLR	26
43	KAZ	27
44	BLR
45	USA	28
46	CAN
47	CZE	29
48	EST	30
49	KAZ	31
50	CZE	32