Beginning this Saturday in Toblach, Italy with a freestyle sprint is the 13th edition of the Tour de Ski (TdS). According to the International Ski Federation (FIS), over the course of seven stages the men will race 80.918 kilometers, the women 60.67 k.
The TdS has become both a staple and a spectacle of the annual World Cup calendar. With a jam-packed series of races primacy is placed on both the ability to recover well and wither less as the TdS transpires.
Prognostication can be tricky in a long-form template like the TdS. So much can go astray during seven races not to mention the travel and dicey germ-avoidance.
Last season’s winner on the women’s side, Heidi Weng of Norway, sits 18th overall in the World Cup standings (14th in distance). She has four top-20’s in the four distance events she’s contested with her best result an eighth in Lillehammer’s 10 k skate. Although featuring two sprints in the first three stages, the TdS remains a distance skier’s paradise.
Weng has skied solidly on the World Cup, but she has yet to show the form that made her a TdS overall winner in 2017 and 2018. Norway has won the last five iterations of the TdS: Marit Bjørgen won once in 2014/2015, Therese Johaug twice (2013/2014, 2015/2016), and Weng the last two years.
If Norway is to keep the streak alive, Ingvild Flugstad Østberg, last year’s TdS runner up, could be the heir apparent. She currently ranks second in the World Cup overall and 15th on the sprint list.
Johaug, having returned from an 18 month doping ban, has been on a distance race tear. She has won all five World Cup distance events this season. Johaug, however, will not be lining up for the TdS.
Only five different women have earned distance podiums this season — Johaug, Østberg, Sweden’s Charlotte Kalla and Ebba Andersson, and Finland’s Krista Pärmäkoski. Along with Johaug, Kalla and Andersson are skipping the TdS. (Andersson sits third overall on the World Cup, Kalla fifth.) With the TdS missing three of the five top ranked World Cup distance skiers, daily stages and the overall podium are up for grabs.
Last season’s third overall finisher, Jessie Diggins of the U.S. Ski Team (USST), often cites the TdS as a point in the season when her form trends towards podium performances. She sits eighth in the current distance standings and could very well have a stout TdS.
Russia’s Natalia Belorukova and Yulia Nepryaeva look strong as does Sadie Bjornsen (USST), and Austria’s Teresa Stadlober.
With less than predictable distance stage podiums for the women, it may simply come down to a drag race on the Alpe Cermis final climb Jan. 6.
The men’s scene is also open to interpretation. Last season’s TdS winner, Switzerland’s Dario Cologna, was in fact a surprise victor. Prior to Cologna’s stage two win in last year’s TdS, it had been nearly three years since the four time TdS overall winner had won a World Cup. Cologna sits 21st overall on the World Cup currently. Given last year’s resurgence, anything is possible for the Swiss skier.
Then there’s Martin Johnsrud Sundby form Norway. He finished on the TdS podium the last three years. At thirty-four-years-old, Sundby is ranked first on the distance list, with a second, a third, and a fourth place in distance races this season.
Sundby won the TdS on two occasions – in 2013/2014 and in 2016. His 2015 win was stripped after he tested positive for excessive levels of Salbutamol. He placed second in the past two Tours.
In a field rife with talent, Sundby’s ability to race and rebound and race and rebound will be tested. Sjur Røthe, Emil Iversen, and Didrik Tønseth— all from Norway— look in form. And there’s Norway’s Johannes Høsflot Klæbo. The winner of last season’s overall World Cup has had flashes of his past explosive self. He could be a TdS protagonist.
The men’s field is notably tight. Along with the Norwegians, several Russians could pop a podium, a stage win, and the overall. Russia comes with a loaded team ready to exploit. Alexander Bolshunov leads the overall World Cup – he’ll turn twenty two on Dec. 31st. He’s backed by teammates Evgeniy Belov, Andrey Melnichenko, and Denis Spitsov.
Canada’s Alex Harvey placed third overall last year and he looked stronger as the TdS progressed.
The Stages
Stage 1: Dec. 29, skate sprint in Toblach, Italy.
Stage 2: Dec. 30, 10 k/15 k skate in Toblach, Italy.
Stage 3: Jan. 1, skate sprint in Val Müstair, Switzerland.